Hello,
We're using forecast information as an input into one of our business models. We understand that forecast information isn't perfect and we're trying to build that uncertainty as an input into our model as well. Does anyone have any data on the 95% confidence intervals for wind, temp, and precipitation predictions in forecasts for 12, 24, or 36 hours into the future? Even rough estimates would be useful.
Thanks!
Thank you for your question. Most of our statistics we monitor for forecast accuracy are not based in confidence intervals but in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). This provides us a picture of the difference between the forecast and the actual historical observations that occurred. We also use the bias which indicates to us whether the forecast values are generally too high or too low.
We continually monitor the accuracy of our source models. For more detail and the latest RMSE error values for the forecast, please see the "How accurate are your weather forecasts?" section of the following document:
https://www.visualcrossing.com/resources/documentation/how-do-we-create-our-weather-forecast/
Regards
Visual Crossing Support
Thanks. Would you be willing to share 95% conference intervals for hourly forecasts? I'm looking for those for wind, precipchance, and temp. Ideally for both 2 days out and 1 day out
